The Vancouver Fog and the future PM

There has been a thick fog enveloping Vancouver this week.  My mind always turns back to stories my mother has told me about the Vancouver fog in the 1940s.  The fog, she says, was so thick that my grandfather would have to get out of the car to find the bridge so that they didn’t drive into the Fraser River.  You literally could not see the hand in front of your face.

I’m not an air quality expert, but this photo from the City of Vancouver archives (1936) of the sawmills on False Creek tells a large part of the story.   In weather conditions like today, the pollution would exacerbate the fog.  Add to that home heating – people burned coal and wood to heat their homes.  Despite the huge increase in population over the years, natural gas and electricity have led to huge improvements in air quality.

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CVA: 260-561 (James Crookall photographs)

Which leads me to the story of the Vancouver fog and the future prime minister.  Round about the time my mother was sitting in the car waiting for my grandfather to find the bridge, John Turner was attending the University of British Columbia.  He was a phenomenon.  The phrase “Big Man on Campus” was probably  invented for him.  Paul Litt’s biography of Turner, Elusive Destiny, chronicles his early years at UBC and his triumphs in academia, sports, and student life.  He was awarded a Rhodes scholarship upon graduating from UBC.

turner_biopg1According to the UBC Sports Hall of Fame, Turner was one of the three fastest men in Canada between 1947 and 1949.  He led UBC to two Pacific Northwest Conference track championships and his Canadian-best in the 100 and 200 yards qualified him for Canada’s 1948 Olympic team. In June of 1947, at a track meet in Seattle, Turner recorded the fastest time by a Canadian in the 100 yard dash, covering the distance in a UBC record 9.8 seconds.

What does this have to do with fog?

In 1948, at the peak of his athletic career, Turner was on his way home from attending a football game in Bellingham.  He lived near UBC on Vancouver’s west side. Paul Litt tells the story in Elusive Destiny:

As they passed over a level crossing on Arbutus Street in Vancouver, a train appeared out of the heavy fog. “We were lucky we were only hit in the front of the car and not in midship,” Turner recalled. “I saw this light coming out of nowhere and was able to turn and roll with the train as it hit us.” The train was not moving rapidly, but it still drove the car a hundred feet down the track. Turner’s left knee was smashed. Surgeons were able to piece it back together, but his leg muscles atrophied as he waited for the bone to heal. By the time he could run again, it was too late to train for the Olympic trials in Vancouver that June. He showed up anyway and gave it a shot, but his knee gave way and he collapsed on the track.

The Vancouver fog dealt a punishing blow to Turner’s Olympic hopes, but he would go on to have an outstanding career in politics and serve as prime minister – and the first PM with a British Columbia pedigree.  He represented Vancouver-Quadra for 9 years and must have cursed the Arbutus Line every time he crossed it.

So, enjoy the fog today, it’s not as bad as it used to be.  And while the trains may be gone, watch out for those bikes on the Arbutus corridor!

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Will voters be in a giving mood in South Surrey-White Rock by-election?

A federal by-election has been called for December 11th in South Surrey-White Rock, which will provide an interesting read of the political thermometer two years out from a general election.

Traditionally, this area has been inhospitable to Liberals.  In fact, I can’t remember the last time the South Surrey-White Rock area had a federal Liberal MP – not in my lifetime.  They took a pass on Trudeaumania (and candidate Bill Vander Zalm!) in 1968, electing an NDPer. At that time, Surrey and White Rock were encompassed in one riding – how times have changed.  Since 1974, the Conservatives have owned the riding.  Voters were Scrooge-like toward my old friend Reni Masi (later elected as MLA) who ran twice as a Grit in the area, but gave like Santa when it came to voting for Progressive Conservative Benno Friesen.

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On December 11th, will South Surrey-White Rock voters continue to be Scrooge-like toward the Liberals?  Or give like Santa?

Gordie Hogg tried in 1993, unsuccessfully, as a Chretien Liberal, losing to upstart Reformer Val Meredith.  MLA Wilf Hurd resigned his seat to try it on as a Fed Lib in 1997 and lost; Hogg then took Hurd’s seat in the Legislature and served for 20 years.

Will this time be different?  After a brief two-year stint in Ottawa, Conservative Dianne Watts resigned her seat to contest the BC Liberal leadership.  If successful in her quest, she will be on a very short list of people who have served as Mayor, MP, and MLA.  In the meantime, Gordie Hogg may do the same if elected on December 11th, becoming the first to do so since (I think) Gerry McGeer, the former mayor of Vancouver, who accomplished that feat, plus senator.

The Liberals are bullish and must be encouraged by not only Hogg’s candidacy, but a strong turnout for PM Justin Trudeau last week in White Rock.

Let’s take a look at 2011 and 2015 numbers for BC and  South Surrey-White Rock:

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The Conservatives hung on in 2015 – barely.  Despite Dianne Watts’ profile as longtime mayor of Surrey, the Conservative vote dropped from 52.9% to 44%.  Taking a closer look, however, it appears that Watts ran ahead of the curve, salvaging the seat.  In 2011, the Conservatives ran 1.16X the BC popular vote, whereas in 2015, they were 1.47X ahead.

The Liberals were shot out of a cannon in 2015 compared to 2011.  The Liberal vote in BC increased 2.63X, but in South Surrey-White Rock, the gain was only 2.18X.  Had the trend been replicated there, Judy Higginbotham would be the MP.  There are extenuating circumstances – Judy wasn’t supposed to be on the ballot.  The longtime Liberal warrior jumped in when the initial candidate was ejected mid-campaign for a since-forgotten gaffe.  Arguably, the Conservatives benefited from that bit of luck.  At the outset of the campaign, it must have looked like they would cruise to victory with Watts and, by the end, they were in an unexpected fight of their life.  It’s one of the few toe-holds they have left in Metro Vancouver.

With the Liberals leading the Conservatives by about five points in the BC popular vote in 2015 but losing this seat, it stands to reason that the Liberals need to be as popular relative to the Conservatives in BC now in order to win the by-election, and trust that Gordie Hogg’s profile in the area lifts them a few additional points over former MP Kerry-Lynne Findlay, who has parachuted in.

The NDP is not a factor here.  I’m sure that strategists at Big Orange are devising ways to drive up Justin’s negatives in the by-election to aid the election of a Conservative.

The latest public polls (caveat emptor) are contradictory regarding federal party standings in BC.   Angus Reid has a four-point CPC lead; Nanos has a six-point Liberal lead; and Abacus has an 11-point Liberal lead.

Then there is turnout.  The 2015 general election had a 75% turnout.  It was a high turnout election to begin with, but in South Surrey-White Rock, they have voting circled in their calendars – it’s an event.   I would expect a drop in turnout like any by-election but not as steep a drop as other places.  Older people will disproportionately vote in a by-election compared to a general election (I have no data at my fingertips to back up this claim, but I think it’s true).  That should give the Conservatives a bit of help.

The Upshot:

The Conservatives had a stronger candidate in 2015 relative to 2011, and the Liberals had candidate trouble.  The Conservatives over-performed; Liberals under-performed.

The Liberals have recruited a strong candidate in 2017; the Conservatives have a good candidate but she is not personally well-known in the riding.  Advantage: Liberals.

The atmosphere in BC is the wildcard.  The Conservatives have a new leader in Andrew Scheer – are they better or worse off than 2015?  Likely worse off as Scheer is not very well-known or defined.  CPC has to make the by-election ballot question about the Liberals and Trudeau, not about local representation.

To that end, just how damaging are the Morneau-small business tax changes?  This riding should feel this issue more than most – it’s full of upper income, white collar professionals with a small ‘c’ conservative tilt.  Many of the people who voted Liberal last time in South Surrey-White Rock are the type of voters that Scheer needs to attract.  If anything, this by-election is a litmus test as to whether that issue – which dominated federal political headlines in August-September, has any teeth at the ballot box.

In three weeks, we’ll know if the voters are feeling like Santa or Scrooge when it comes to the mid-term government.  For the Liberals, this is a seat they never win so they have little to lose so long as they manage expectations.   For the Conservatives, it will be tough loss for a new leader, on the heels of losing a Quebec seat to the Liberals recently, though also an opportunity for momentum for a new leader trying to get established.  Right now, the Conservatives look like they have their work cut out for them.

 

 

 

 

Rafe Mair: an agenda setter

It’s impossible to blog about politics in BC without acknowledging the passing of Rafe Mair.

While his radio career stretched three decades, Rafe’s radio hey-day was the 1990s.  He set the agenda on major issues.  His editorials were must-listen radio for anyone involved in politics.  Back in those days, you had to have the dial at CKNW 98 during Rafe’s editorial or you were going to miss something.  Either you would cringe, have a sigh of relief, or cheer – particularly if the other guys were being gored that day.  He left an indelible mark on the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accord debates.  Where he arguably was the difference-maker was stopping the Kemano Completion Project, advanced by Alcan, in the mid 1990s.  His advocacy was followed by then-Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell opposing the project, which made it virtually impossible for the NDP government to lend its support.

Screen Shot 2017-10-10 at 8.51.28 AM.pngThe CKNW talk radio line-up of the day was impressive.  Rafe set the agenda, but he was followed by Bill Good, then later on by Phillip Till.  Rafe’s passing highlights the current day fragmentation of our media landscape.  There is no dominant medium, nor any journalist today, that has the bully pulpit like Rafe did, or Jack Webster before him.

In politics, Rafe, then a Liberal, helped organize the “majority movement” during the Barrett years, where the free enterprise side of the spectrum rallied forces, ultimately, behind Bill Bennett and the Social Credit Party.  Rafe found his way onto the ballot in 1975 and served under Bennett for six years.  His departure in 1981 was highly significant as it proved to be a seminal moment in BC politics.  The Socreds had modernized its party apparatus and surprised the NDP in a bellwether seat.  No governing party had won a by-election since 1981 until Christy Clark did so in 2011, and the by-election Rafe created in 1981 sowed the seeds of Socred victory in the 1983 general election.

It’s noteworthy that Rafe’s post-politics career had an early setback.  Originally signed on as a radio host with CJOR in 1981, he was supplanted by former NDP Premier Dave Barrett a few years later and relegated to the midnight shift on CKNW.  He worked his way back up the line-up all the way to the top.  At that time, he was in his 50s and had to reinvent himself.  It must have taken a lot of perseverance and humility.

On a personal note, my parents knew Rafe from high school and UBC.  My Dad and Rafe ran against each other for head of the Zeta Psi fraternity and engaged in many political debates, I’m told.  In 1991, the Rafe Mair Show invited the youth wings of the Socreds and the NDP onto their show in the pre-election period.  As a young organizer for Gordon Wilson’s BC Liberals, I was outraged! Why weren’t the Liberals invited? (Of course, we had no seats in the Legislature at the time).  So I did what anyone would do in this situation, I faxed Rafe Mair and demanded to be in the show.  He agreed.  Along with my team of young Liberals – Bruce Young and Christy Clark – we appeared on his show from the CKNW studio at the Plaza of Nations.  I was nervous and absolutely terrible, intimidated by the legendary host.  At the first commercial break, I mentioned who my parents were and, at that point, Rafe’s tone changed and took it easy on us.  Thanks for that Rafe.  Years later, my father passed away, and though he and my Dad had not kept in touch very much over the years, he was kind enough to note his passing on his show, a kind gesture of a broadcaster at the top of the heap, remembering an old friend from days gone by.

 

Throne Speech: what was that all about?

 

From May 9th to June 28th, BC politics had some of the wildest, uncertain times – even by BC standards.  I wrote about my experience with the Green negotiations and the throne speech in the Vancouver Sun (August 19th print edition).

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FILE PHOTO Premier Christy Clark arrives with her Chief-of-Staff Mike McDonald before a provincial cabinet swearing-in ceremony at Government House in Victoria, B.C., on Monday, June 12, 2017. CHAD HIPOLITO / THE CANADIAN PRESS

On June 22, Lt. Gov. Judith Guichon delivered the final Throne Speech of the Christy Clark B.C. Liberal government. It was the exclamation mark on a turbulent six week period of intra-party negotiations, internal caucus discussions and a genuine attempt to gain the confidence of the House and the confidence of the people of B.C. in the event the parties were sent to the polls for a makeup summer election.

Throughout the period following the May 9 election, I was at the heart of discussions. At Premier Clark’s direction, I worked with our negotiating team and staff to identify common ground and innovative solutions. Despite productive and vigorous discussions, less than one hour before our planned final session, the B.C. Greens pulled the plug and never entertained a formal proposal.

With Green becoming Orange, the B.C. Liberals regrouped. At first, the prevailing sentiment was that time in the ‘penalty box’ wasn’t a bad thing. But as time wore on, and the implications of what the NDP-Green pact would do to parliamentary traditions, let alone the economy, the approach changed to ‘putting six attackers on the ice.’

Coming out of the negotiations, we recognized that our proposal contained elements that voters would strongly support and they could all be accomplished within a balanced budget and provide tax relief.

In the background was the unpredictability of B.C. Green party leader Andrew Weaver. Today, we now know he is prepared to prop up the Horgan NDP government at any cost. In June, we believed we needed to test the strength of the NDP-Green pact, which was predicated on the false promise of the NDP attracting a Liberal to serve as Speaker.

Throughout early and mid-June, Weaver privately expressed his misgivings about his course of action. Some observers suggested that we fold our tent and take defeat with “dignity.” Hogwash. Our responsibility was to find a way to govern, especially given that we hold the most seats. You don’t quit before the whistle is blown.

As June progressed, the B.C. Liberal Caucus met several times to consider Throne Speech content. The full caucus discussed ideas and every member was invited to submit ideas — and most did with many of the ideas incorporated.

The Throne Speech reaffirmed the core values that unify B.C. Liberals: Fiscal responsibility, economic growth and job creation, a fair labour relations climate and bridging urban and rural B.C.

Where the Throne Speech diverged from the May election platform was around four key areas where voters felt we had under-delivered.

Child care and early childhood education, a fairer society, communities and transit, and the environment.

There were many other proposals, notably, campaign finance reform.

The government issued a blunt mea culpa. Passing political finance reform on the floor of the Legislature in June should have been a no-brainer for the Greens.

Instead, the NDP, which collected eight of the top nine largest donations in 2017, duped the Greens to continue the current fundraising rules until further notice.

On a $50-billion provincial budget, the Throne Speech commitments would have amounted to about a 1.5% increase in spending — well within a balanced budget framework, especially following a massive $2.8 billion surplus that gave us more room to move.

The Throne Speech provided the most inclusive agenda that any government has ever brought forward without losing key distinctions between the B.C. Liberals and the NDP on our core values.

B.C. voters seemed to agree. In late June, Mainstreet Research found the B.C. Liberals with an 11-point lead on the eve of the confidence vote, including support for Throne Speech initiatives. While polling can certainly be unreliable, this pollster found that the B.C. Liberals had received a “throne speech bump”.

Without a doubt, some B.C. Liberal partisans were disoriented, not to mention the media. As one adviser told me, in order to grow, you must “alienate the base” — or at least make it uncomfortable.

We’ll never know if the political calculus would have worked, but what was clear to us was that we needed to demonstrate that we were capable of listening and responding.

Alas, the Greens rejected the Throne Speech and the Lieutenant-governor passed on a summer election. We essentially ‘hit the post’ as the buzzer sounded. One month later, Christy Clark retired from the arena, sparking a process of renewal within the B.C. Liberal Party.  The Throne Speech will fade away into the mists of political history.

My regret is not that we brought forward that Throne Speech, it’s that we didn’t do it sooner.

Now, the leadership aspirants have a clean slate to put forward their own vision for the province in entirely new circumstances. Whatever course they chart for the province, they should be no less bold.

Mike McDonald directed Christy Clark’s 2013 election victory and served as chief of staff in the final two months of her government. He was part of the B.C. Liberal negotiating team with the B.C. Green party. 

 

 

Opportunity knocks for BC Liberal leadership candidates

BC Liberals aren’t in the habit of electing leaders very often – only twice in the last 24 years.  I was fortunate to have directed the campaigns in both cases – Gordon Campbell in 1993 and Christy Clark in 2011.

Those races were very different.  Gordon Campbell was the outsider who joined the party on the eve of announcing his candidacy.  While the party was the official opposition, its organization was threadbare having gone from zero to 17 seats in a populist brushfire in the 1991 election.  Campbell’s leadership campaign, and subsequent efforts over seventeen plus years as leader, built the guts and machinery of the modern day BC Liberal Party.  The 2011 campaign featured three serious senior cabinet contenders – George Abbott, Kevin Falcon, and Michael de Jong – and Christy Clark, who ran from the outside in the aftermath of the government’s handling of the HST.  However, Christy was no stranger to the Party.  She had served as MLA for nine years until 2005, including Deputy Premier, and was one of BC’s most recognizable names.  Unlike Campbell who spent eight long years winning his way into government, Clark went straight to the premier’s chair.  She brought a fresh look and focused agenda, enabling the party to win an improbable election in 2013.

This time will be different yet again.  The party is in a stronger position organizationally than 1993 and even stronger than 2011, though not in government.   The next leader has a better opportunity than Campbell had to take power in the subsequent election and does not have as challenging an internal dynamic as Clark had in 2011.  Nevertheless, the final furlong is always the hardest and the next leader will be under huge pressure to deliver victory in a party that has grown accustomed to winning.

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The contenders are assembling at the gates for the BC Liberal leadership race

Vaughn Palmer wrote recently on potential leadership candidates with the headline shouting “BC Liberals slag own potential leaders”.  Of course, these are unnamed sources who hide behind the curtain.  It certainly doesn’t reflect my own view.

As someone who has worked in the engine room of politics, I try to follow Ronald Reagan’s famous maxim that “thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow [BC Liberal]”.  Leadership aspirants are contemplating making huge personal sacrifices to put themselves on the line.  Running in a leadership contest is a politically naked process – it’s all about you.  You can’t hide behind someone else.

What I see is a field of potential candidates that all offer something unique.  There is no question that each candidate has to overcome perceived weaknesses, but that’s why you have a leadership race.  The leadership race is a trial by fire where the most organized, most eloquent, most driven, most motivating and compelling candidates rise to the fore.

Another of my political maxims, based on years of scientific research, is that “You can’t win if you don’t run”.  Politics is full of surprises.  Joe Clark in 1976.  Bob Skelly in 1984.  Stephane Dion in 2006.  Andrew Scheer was hardly a front-runner for the CPC leadership when it started and Maxime Bernier was certainly not seen as a main contender.  Let’s not forget Jeremy Corbyn in the UK (twice) and Donald Trump.  Then there’s John Horgan – when no one wanted the job – and now he’s Premier.

When I look at the field of potential candidates that people are chatting to me about, they all have an interesting story.  Winning means taking it to a higher level than where they are today, but they all have something to build from.  My hope is that we have a race where individual candidates make great strides in reaching their potential, and in doing so, make a significant contribution to building the party going forward.

All leadership candidates will have to demonstrate they can lead and win at the highest level.    It’s not whether one is a liberal or conservative; rural, suburban, or urban; or male or female.  The best candidate will be the one who can sell his or her vision to the membership.  Rather than slag them, or rule them out on some superficial basis, I say “thank you” for considering running and encourage them all to step bravely forward to articulate their vision for British Columbia.

 

Poll states the obvious – this campaign is a dogfight

Here we go. The Vancouver Sun is trumpeting a poll on the front page that shows the NDP with a 10-point lead.

I could probably drive a truck through the methodology of this poll. But that’s not the point.

The point is: of course the NDP can win! That is an eternal truth of BC politics.

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It’s a dogfight this time.

In February, I addressed the BC Liberal provincial council where all of the campaigners were in town for a pre-election briefing. I said there what I say now: the NDP get 40% of the vote before they get out of bed in the morning. Or 39% anyway. They are always lurking in the shadows.

In 10 of the last 11 BC elections, the NDP have hit the 39% threshold. They won an election with 39% in 1996. In the past three elections, it hasn’t been enough as the BC Liberals have finished about 4-points ahead each time. But we know they can win. I respect that and I respect them. They are tough adversaries.

An NDP friend of mine told me last fall that the only time he believed the NDP could win was when he talked to me! The NDP seemed down in the dumps. The set-up for the election is reversed this time – the underdog became the overdog and vice versa. Conventional wisdom is a powerful thing and most observers felt the BC Liberals were cruising to victory in 2017. I have never felt that this was going to be easy. My nickname “Eeyore” is borne from hard-luck lessons on the campaign trail over the years.

So, 10-point lead? My advice to BC Liberal followers and other interested voters is to believe this snapshot could be real, midway through the campaign.

What does this mean? The BC Liberals have led a lonely crusade to expose the NDP platform dare, which is to promise everything to everyone without the means to pay for it, and hoping they won’t get caught. Now, you would think the media and general scrutiny would increase, and in recent days, the NDP has been marked up a bit with more scrutiny about the role of the Steelworkers and nagging questions about how to pay for eliminating  Medical Services Premiums. I also believe that voters see the NDP’s flashy, dashy promise to eliminate Lower Mainland bridge tolls as unrealistic – “how are they going to pay for it” and “nothing comes for free” are voiced by voters at the doors and in focus groups.

With two weeks out to election day – and four days until the start of Advance Polls – it is clear that the stakes have been raised in this election.

The next two weeks will be vigorous. There is a lot on the line. We should always campaign like we are ten points behind.

I feel good about a lot of things in this campaign. The response at the doors is good. Morale is positive. We have a great team of candidates and they are working hard. My view is that the Premier has out-performed John Horgan at the radio debate and on the nightly news.   The BC Liberals have a strong core of seats and a resilient voter base. We’ve been here before and fought through it.

For those who believe BC is on the right track, take the Mainstreet poll as a serious wake-up call. Of course the NDP can win. Could election night be a 10-point NDP margin? 15-points in the Lower Mainland as this poll suggests? (I cannot resist point out that the poll does not reveal the number of interviews with key multicultural communities). I do not take these poll numbers literally, but I do not discount the potential of an NDP victory.  John Horgan’s sensitive hands are dangerously close to the reins of the economy.

In 2013, while we knew where we were at, we snuck up on the NDP, media, and conventional wisdom and had an election night surprise.

In 2017, its eyes wide open. There will be no sneaky NDP win. The NDP can only win now if it is an an out-in-the-open fully considered decision. The overdog and underdog have now converged. It’s simply now a dogfight … and that’s fine with me. An out-in-the open fight over BC’s economic future and what it will mean to BC families.

 

Electing First Nations candidates in BC – will 2017 be a big step forward?

When it comes to electing First Nations people from British Columbia to the Legislature or Parliament, all political parties have to do better.

The right of First Nations to vote was finally acknowledged in 1949 in BC (not until 1960 federally).  Nisga’a Frank Calder was elected from the riding of Atlin in 1949, representing the CCF.  He served most of the next 30 years as MLA from that riding.  In 1972, he was the first aboriginal person appointed to cabinet in BC, though was later removed by Premier Dave Barrett.  According to a biography of Calder, the NDP moved on from Calder, nominating another candidate in the 1975 election.  Calder left the NDP, joined the Social Credit Party, and was elected for the last time.  A recipient of the Order of Canada and the Order of British Columbia, Calder’s career deserves more attention, which included his leadership role in the Calder case, massively significant to the recognition of aboriginal rights and land claims.

Yet few others have followed in Calder’s wake.  Larry Guno was elected as an NDP MLA from Atlin between 1986-1991 but did not run again.  Until Melanie Mark was elected in the Mt. Pleasant by-election, there had been no First Nations representation since 1991 in the BC Legislature.  I was hopeful that Marian Wright, a former Chief, would succeed for the BC Liberals in 2009 in North Island but she fell short.

The story federally from BC isn’t any better.  Len Marchand was elected as a Liberal in Kamloops amidst the first round of Trudeamania in 1968.  He held the seat twice, and until 2015, had been the only Liberal to represent a seat in the Interior for decades.  Len went on to serve in the Senate.  He passed away last year, but left a considerable legacy.  In particular, he was a strong advocate for First Nations representation in Parliament.  He made an important point – First Nations populations are scattered across Canada with diluted voting strength on a riding by riding basis.  It was no coincidence that the only riding to elect a First Nations person was the one riding where First Nations had the numbers .  Len thought that aboriginal people should have guaranteed representation based on their proportion of the population.  It’s an interesting point and it remains to be seen if recent advances in representation make such a guarantee a moot point.

Marchand had been the only First Nations person elected to Parliament from BC, ever, until 2015.  Jody Wilson-Raybould became the second, and the first First Nations woman elected from BC since Confederation.  She busted through the ceiling and then some, with her appointment as Minister of Justice.

Today, there is a heightened awareness and advocacy for aboriginal representation in our institutions.  Provincial legislatures are starting to see higher levels of representation as is the federal Parliament.  Groups and networks have formed to promote indigenous representation.

But what about BC and this election?  Premier Christy Clark has made it a priority to recruit First Nations leaders to run as candidates.  She has three strong candidates running in seats held by the NDP that can be described as ‘swing’, meaning they should be close races.  Former Haisla Chief Councillor Ellis Ross is running in Skeena; Wanda Good, who has served as a deputy Chief and an advocate for First Nations women, is running in Stikine; and former Nanwakolas Council president Dallas Smith is running in North Island.

The Premier took some flak for appointing Ellis Ross as candidate in Skeena.  She did it because she felt she needed a leader like Ellis in the Legislature.  She went out and recruited Wanda and Dallas to the team as well, and ensured they have local teams to support them.  This week, the BC Liberals launched a 30-second TV spot promoting their First Nations candidates.  The party is making the election of these candidates a priority.

The NDP nominated and elected Melanie Mark in the Mt. Pleasant by-election.  Mark became the first First Nations woman elected to the BC Legislature which, like the election of Wilson-Raybould, was long, long overdue.

But then there is the curious case of the Fraser-Nicola riding.  Chief Aaron Sam of the Lower Nicola Indian Band, a lawyer, sought the NDP nomination.  NDP Leader John Horgan asked former MLA Harry Lali to stand down and make way for Sam.  Lali refused.  At this point, Horgan has a choice.  He can override Lali and appoint Sam, or he can let it play out.  Horgan let it play out and Lali, a four-term former MLA, got the votes.

Simply put, Horgan did not make the nomination of Chief Aaron Sam a top priority.  If he wanted to make it happen, he could have. The NDP can claim ‘local democracy’ but its nomination process is already a shambles when it comes grassroots democracy.  NDP minority-preference rules have already caused confusion and resentment in places like Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley, and Skeena.  I understand Horgan’s choice.  Nomination politics can be messy and Harry Lali would surely have not gone quietly into the night.  It just means one less First Nations leader seeking a seat in the Legislature, which is too bad considering our history.  It also means one less leadership moment for Horgan, especially at a time his party should be looking for renewal.

Premier Clark stuck her neck out and is proudly campaigning alongside three strong First Nations candidates.   So far the Greens (including Deputy Leader Adam Olsen) and NDP have two First Nations candidates each, perhaps more will emerge.  Let’s hope all parties in the future stick their necks out when necessary to get First Nations candidates on the ballot and into the Legislature.  It would make a difference.  From my side of the ledger, I hope to see Ellis, Wanda, and Dallas elected on May 9th.

BC Liberal candidates on video: